What Are Iran's Nuclear Capabilities? How Dangerous Are They?

 

Is Iran a Full-fledged Nuclear State?

Iran is a nuclear threshold state. It has in its possession enough enriched Uranium to make several atomic bombs. The US intelligence has warned that if Iran wants to build a nuclear bomb, it can do it at some point in future.

Iran has always maintained that its nuclear programme was meant for peaceful purposes alone.

According to a 2024 US Congressional Research Service Report, Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons programme and did not have all the technologies necessary to develop nuclear weapons.

Iran’s Uranium enrichment programme has been running since 2000. These facilities, in theory, could generate highly enriched Uranium used in nuclear weapons. In nuclear reactors used for generating energy, low enriched Uranium is used, and Iran has always said that the enrichment programme is solely for that purpose.

Which International Treaties restrict Iran from Developing Nuclear Weapons?

In 2015, a nuclear agreement was signed between Iran and P 5+1, the five permanent United Nations Security Council members, plus Germany. It is titled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement obligates Iran to restrict its nuclear programme, allow monitoring by the UN Security Council, and report routinely to the Council about the programme. 

The restrictions were employed on various nuclear facilities of Iran- the Arak IR-40 Reactor, Natanz Uranium Enrichment Plant, Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, Gachin Uranium Mine, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, Isfahan Uranium Conversion Plant, and the Parchin Military Research complex.

In 2018, the then-US President, Donald Trump, announced that the country was withdrawing from the JCPOA. As a result, the monitoring of Iran’s nuclear programme stopped, and Iran stopped complying with the agreement. In 2019, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found out that Iran was exceeding the limits of nuclear enrichment and other nuclear activities set by the agreement. 

This was a development that gave Iran the ability to produce nuclear weapons at a faster pace if it decided so. Yet, the agreement has enabled the IAEA and the US to watch closely Iran’s activities on the nuclear front. 

The strategy that experts advocate to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons is this- Iran must be prevented from having a full-fledged infrastructure to produce highly enriched Uranium used in nuclear weapons. If this is achieved, the international community will get sufficient time to stop Iran if it decides to build a nuclear weapon. 

In 2019, Iran announced that it had surpassed the limit of production of enriched Uranium as mandated by the agreement. IAEA also confirmed this. In 2020, Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was assassinated in a US air strike. After this incident, Iran declared that it was withdrawing from the nuclear deal. Since then, Iran has also expressed willingness to renegotiate the agreement, provided the US lifts its sanctions on Iran. 

Nuclear experts have stated that Iran would require months and even a year to develop a nuclear weapon in the current scenario. The process will be difficult for Iran because it involves high-end metallurgical and engineering capabilities that Iran now does not have. 

There is this concept of nuclear breakout, which is about the time that it would take for a potential nuclear power to acquire sufficient atomic fuel to make a bomb. Some monitoring agencies think that Iran has achieved this objective and it can make a bomb quickly. Even after crossing the breakout point, Iran would have to overcome other technical and engineering hurdles. Another key problem that Iran would face is that making one nuclear weapon would not suffice if they were to use it. 

Where are Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Located? Are They Vulnerable?

Iran’s major nuclear sites are, 

Arak IR-40 Reactor

Natanz Uranium Enrichment Plant

Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant

Gachin Uranium Mine

Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant

Isfahan Uranium Conversion Plant

Parchin Military Research Complex

Whether these facilities are vulnerable to attack is a matter of debate. For example, the Natanz nuclear site has deep underground tunnels in the Zagros Mountains. The Fordow nuclear facility is also buried deep inside a mountain. Yet, BBC reported that these nuclear sites are susceptible to a military strike. It was rumoured that Donald Trump, during his presidency, had considered the option of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

There is a history of the US destroying hostile countries’ nuclear sites in air strikes, and two examples were in Iraq and Syria when the US strikes took out the Osirak Nuclear Reactor in Iraq and a plutonium reactor in Syria.

The underground nuclear facilities of Iran are much more difficult to destroy, and Israel would need help from the US to do that, according to the BBC. One expert told the BBC that two precision-guided bunker buster bombs could do the job- one to create a crater and the second to strike inside the crater to penetrate the facility. 

If not able to completely destroy the nuclear sites, the bunker busters could at least crush the entry points and air inlets to the buildings. Then, Iran would require many months to re-establish the functions of the reactors. 

Any aircraft entering Iran’s airspace to bomb the nuclear sites would have to escape the strong surface-to-air missile system of Iran that has a range of 300 kilometres. Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, reportedly has infiltrated deep into the Iranian military and police forces. This might help Israel to guide its attacks more effectively and even orchestrate sabotage from the inside. Israel assassinated Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah in Lebanon Brigadier General Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of Iran's nuclear programme, with support from inside. 

Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the US have also been sabotaging Iran’s nuclear programme through cyber attacks targeting Uranium enrichment centrifuges.

If a wider Middle East war erupts, the nuclear capabilities of Iran would loom above all of us as the largest threat that the world has ever faced. Yet, Iran is also aware of the repercussions of using nuclear weapons. Even after the Israel-Gaza war raging for more than a year, Iran has kept itself from escalating it to the level of a regional war. The world watches, holding its breath, and prays sanity prevails.