World Population, Migration, and the Gen Z Reluctance to Have Children

 The growing perception is that the world is not a safe place anymore. Why bring children to a world torn apart by many wars and under the shadow of climate doom? This question is too familiar and relatable to the Gen Z generation.   

In the US, the population projections reveal that the birth-over-death ratio will be in the negative zone by around 2040. Millennials and Gen Z are less inclined towards having children than their preceding generations. 

The immigrants are expected to compensate for this population decline. Even the Covid 19 failed to bring about an increase in babies being born. It was expected, and signals even showed such a trend, but it was short-lived. 

In 2020, BBC reported that 23 countries would see their population reduced to half of what it is currently by 2100. 

In the 1950s, the planet had 4.7 children per woman; in 2021, the corresponding figure is 2.4. The world population will start declining when the fertility rate falls below 2.1. This is expected to happen around 2100, and the projected fertility figure for that year is 1.7. 

The BBC report clarifies that the decline is not much about diminishing egg or sperm count. The cause is the choices modern, educated women and couples make. Now, they have better access to contraception, which makes these choices possible.  

Isn’t population decline a good thing, given the environmental cost of it on Earth and its ecosystem? Yes and no. Indeed, population control is beneficial to ensure a society’s prosperity and access to resources. Yet, when the population declines, we have an aged society. The number of elders will be more than the number of young adults, which will have a detrimental impact on the productivity of society.  

Interestingly, the African population is expected to grow three-fold by 2100. Open borders and free immigration are emerging as the best solution to the problem. The ongoing discourses in the developed world still circle around immigration as a problem rather than a solution. 

If only the Western world would overcome its prejudices of race and religion. If the borders are turned seamless and immigration less arduous, population decline could present a unique opportunity. This will benefit human civilisation and the planet in terms of resources and environmental security. 

When The Boundaries Are Fluid

Social scientists are getting vocal about rethinking the boundaries and borders of our world. Fluid borders are not a dream anymore since the European Union countries opened their borders to each other. It is a reality. More importantly, the EU's open borders proved that it is possible and beneficial. The world realised this also when the imaginary Iron Wall of the Soviet Union and the physical wall of Berlin fell. The people have the power to come together and exist in peace. Narrow thinking and misunderstandings need not prevent such a course. 

A European can now cycle across or walk and cross several national borders without fearing a bullet or arrest by the military. 

The merchants and adventurers who travelled thousands of kilometres on the back of camels and horses, even by foot, along the Silk Road, and the voyagers who dared the rough sea gamuts from one continent to another in their sail ships will tell you what an exciting world it will be if you erase the borders. 

The states now command technology and the ability to maintain order and peace even when the borders are fluid and have constant movement. 

Migration and refugees are the reality of today. Converting these into growth opportunities and prosperity inducers, rather than seeing it as a security matter, is the challenge before us.  

In America alone, the estimated amount spent on border security and immigration enforcement since 2013 has been $409 billion. For 2024 alone, the money to be set aside for this in the US Congress has been $25 billion. The border infrastructure industry is worth $48 billion globally. All this money could be rechanneled into productive and welfare work. 

Gen Z and the Future of the World

Gen Z is far more racially diverse than the previous generations, which means they are better equipped to live in a multicultural society. They are going to be the best-educated generation in history. They have better awareness about gender, race, environment, and the politics defined by these. Gen Z commands superior technical know-how. 

These are all good signs and evoke hope for an integrated global society in future. The world can become one place if we allow it to be.